4th and Goal: Time to get Flex-ible.

Going into Week 4, the real excitement begins. The early jitters are over and everybody has had ample time to feel out and evaluate their teams. Now it’s time play loose, have some fun.

The NFL decided instead of breaking us in with the bye weeks that they would create a fantasy frenzy by giving byes to juggernauts like Atlanta (Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, Roddy White, and Tony G), Arizona (Kurt Warner, Fitz and Q), Philadelphia (McNabb, Westbrook, Lesean McCoy, DeSean Jackson, and now Brent Celek), and Carolina who may not be performing the same as last year, but you don’t think of sitting DeAngelo or OG Steve Smith ever. There’s a substantial list here of players that will be absent in your lineups this week, but there’s nothing you can do about it and everybody in your league is forced to adjust in some form or another. So, the Fantasy Guy is here to help.  

It’s time to get flexible. No more resting easy after your squad dominates the early games. Without that spark in your lineup you have to seek points elsewhere. This is why most leagues have 16-18 rounds in a draft. If you’ve been paying attention to The Fantasy Guy’s Tweets, you know that he has hit on every sleeper special so far. And while the waiver wire may seem thinner than an Olsen twin, there are some good plays available with some good matchups to jump on. Here are 8 surefire fill-ins for Week 4.

the Fantasy Guy adores Glen Coffee

Glen Coffee, RB, SF @ St. Louis – Pat yourself on the back if you drafted him to handcuff your boy Frank Gore. Regardless, if you have him on your bench or even if he is still available, this guy is a must start…..that’s right a must. I would play him over Pierre Thomas or Ryan Grant, although I don’t expect you to. The highly touted preseason slut is eager to prove that he isn’t a fluke and the Rams are 27th in the league against the run allowing almost 150 yards and a touchdown a game. The rook should easily see 20 carries with nobody else in the backfield so if you are pondering that flex spot with players like Ray Rice, Marshawn Lynch (back after suspension) or Correll Buckhalter, go for the Alabama Slammer, peg him in for 24 carries, 115 yards and a TD.

Knowshon Moreno, RB, Den vs. Dallas – Dallas D looked a little better on Monday night, but was it really their Defense, or a lacksidasical effort from a struggling Panthers team?  I choose the latter. We don’t know too much about the Broncos, but what we have seen so far is that they are committed to running the ball and they love Knowshon to the point where they felt they had to draft him even after they had already stocked up on free agent backs all offseason long. This is the week that Buckhalter takes somewhat of a back seat and with Moreno’s improving skills in the blocking game and his ability in the open field, look for Moreno to breakout this week. 18 carries 105 yards and 2TDs.

Mewelde Moore, RB, Pit vs. San Diego – Here’s a guy who is probably still on the waiver wire and if your team is looking thin, I suggest you make the move. M Squared has been a solid player in the NFL for the past five seasons and for some reason his name keeps coming up every year. The Steelers are at home this week against the 26th ranked rushing D in the league and Willie Parker has turf toe. If you have ever had turf toe you would know that it’s kind of like riding a tricycle without the front wheel. For a running back, that’s not good. I know you might be thinking Rashard Mendenhall will be taking the bulk of the carries, but he hasn’t earned it yet and Mewelde is a proven commodity. Last year he filled in nicely for Willie running for over 300 yards with TD in all three games he started. Plus, he’s going to be getting those third and six check downs which is valuable in a PPR league. My guess: 120 total yards and a TD.

Donald Brown, RB, Ind vs. Seattle – The Colts seem to play a little conservative at home. They are the professional version of the Michigan Wolverines. The UConn standout has proved he can play with the big boys and you were rewarded if you put him in your lineup last week. Now, with bye weeks approaching he is becoming a viable option and against one of the worst rushing D’s in the league he is sure to be a factor. Look for an 12-15 carries and some nice garbage points. I’m sayin 65 yards on the ground 48 threw the air and a TD.

Johnny Knox, WR, Chi vs. Detroit – I haven’t yet joined the Johnny Knox Fan Club, and quite frankly I haven’t allowed myself to even know much about him. But it seems that Mr. Cutler truly does make everyone better. For example, look at Eddie Royal this year. He is turning into a one-hit wonder without Jay behind center. Earl Bennett and Johnny Knox were nobody’s and with a matchup against Detroit this week at home, look for them to be airing it out. Detroit is better than you think against the run, but they will allow you to move the ball so if you are deciding between duds like Teddy Ginn Jr., Chris Henry, or Patrick Crayton…Johnny Knox is the way to go. 6 grabs 87 yards and a glorious touchdown.

A DA Bomb should get Braylon off the schnide!

Braylon Edwards, WR, Cle vs. Cincinnati – Okay, so the Browns are no good. We know that. However, I do believe they are better (fantasywise) with DA taking snaps. Remember this was a Pro Bowl duo in 2007 and while they may not have that same swagger, they will be throwing the ball. Yeah, I know Cincinnati is the same team that I said would shut down Greg Jennings, and did, and I realize that Santonio Holmes laid an egg last week, but there were some opportunities there. And with Derek Anderson coming off such a well, shitty performance last week, he is at home and he must improve. Don’t ask for much, but do expect them to throw down the field. One deep bomb is all you need. My forecast 4 catches 92 yards and a TD. That’s good enough.

Mario Manningham, WR, NYG @ Kansas City – You might have been a little bummed out last week when Mario didn’t have another magical performance, but the game was over by halftime. Kansas City may not be any better than Tampa Bay, but as history proves they are a better team inside of Arrowhead. This means less bench time for Manningham and if you watched DeSean Jackson gut up the Kansas City secondary, look for much of the same from Super Mario. The big play opportunities will be there and Mario is their guy. Give him another shot and you will be rewarded with 7 grabs 124 yards and a TD.

Justin Gage, WR, Ten @ Jacksonville – We are going to see a whole lot of Chris Johnson, but if you are looking for a wideout to fill-in for Roddy, Fitz, or DeSean, take a good look at Justin Gage. Previous number ones Reggie Wayne, Andre Johnson, and Anquan Boldin carved the Jags secondary and Gage has proven to be Kerry Collins’ go to guy so far. It’s a tough call, but don’t be surprised when Gage goes for 8 for 118 and a TD. Don’t say I didn’t warn ya.

These are the weeks that you gotta start playin the matchups as far as your flex goes. Players will get banged up, teams will have byes, and you must adjust. If you have been following the Fantasy Guy blog you are probably starting to realize that he is pretty close to being right on with most predictions. So if you are second guessing yourself don’t be afraid to ask. The Fantasy Guys is always open for comments and discussions and enjoys helping you solve your problems. Stay tuned for the Fantasy Guys Five coming up.

The Fantasy Guy’s Five: Week 3

You know those tasty looking sandwiches Dominos has been advertising for the past six months? You know, the ones with that bold new taste that claims undoubtedly that they can beat any old sub shop at its craft? Well, my curiousity got to me today after watching their newest commercial which gave me a few small inside chuckles so I got on the dial to try one out. Not too mention a buddy of mine was salivating over it and could not be swayed from his lunchtime decision.

We decided on the Chicken Bacon Ranch, which anything with those three things in one sentence will make froth at the mouth like an eight month old and the Sweet & Spicy Chicken Habanero, one of their 4 bold new oven baked delights. We also ordered a pepperoni pizza as well even though I have never been a fan of Dominos pizza, but the 3 for $5.55 deal was just too inviting. Half an hour went by before our man meal showed up and the excitement of something new was building up.

I have always been a man that has lived by a few random rules. Mainly, to be open-mined and always allow yourself to try something new and don’t dip your pen in the company ink. Easy enough right? Well, today I added a new rule. By your sandwiches from a place that makes sandwiches and your pizzas from a place that makes pizzas. After my first bite the excitement was thrown out the window like giving away a buck to a slot machine. The chicken look like it was leftover Taco Bell meat, the bacon wasn’t even detected by my tastebuds, and the ranch (and I put ranch on everything) was as bland as the girl you meet at the bar that you realize you have absolutely nothing in common with. As far as the other sandwich, it was loaded with pineapples yet I couldn’t even taste them because the jalapenos lodge inside were more intense than a cockfight (as in two rooster boxing). All in all, and I don’t say this much, but I give Dominos an F. Whether you choose to live by my words or not, don’t say I didn’t worn ya.

Now, onto the picks. Last week, I went 3-2 once again and as I stated in a post earlier this week, I am done puttin my money on the Redskins. But hey, we’re still making money.

Giants (-7) over BUCS  The G-Men are back to ’07 form and quite possibly even better than that. Eli has matured into one of the best QBs in the league and the they haven’t missed a beat at wideout. Super Mario and Steve Smith are both at the top of the ranks through the first two weeks and it has no signs of stopping. The Giants head to Tampa this week against a team that really has no hope against some of the better teams in the league. Even though Leftwich might look good on paper, he has never really proved he can win. He might be a good pickup if you are looking for garbage points because they will be behind all year and he can actually play, but my money has the Giants by 10 in this one. Fantasy Pick: Brandon Jacobs breaks out this week with 124yds on the ground and two short-yardage touchdowns.

The Fantasy Guy loves him some Mario Manningham

Titans (+2.5) over JETS  I understand that the Jets are not a team anybody wants to face this year, but also understand they are still very raw. It’s comparable to Kobe Bryant’s rookie year. You saw the talent, but it hadn’t all came together yet. Mark Sanchez will be a great QB in this league as well, but I would rather play bridge with my grandmother before going up against an 0-2 Titans squad. Fantasy Pick: Jerricho Cothcery, 7 for 77 and a touch.

BENGALS  (+4) over Steelers  The Bungles have a defense. Shutdown corners Leon Hall and Jonathan Joseph have been super solid to start the year and Antwan Odom had five sack last week…………five! Bundle this baby up with the under in a nice little parlay to make some extra cash. With a banged up Steelers defense, this is my lock of the week. Fantasy Pick: Chad Ocho Cinco, 6 grabs for 115 and a 60 yard grab on the first series to the house allowing him to pull out the terrible towel.

Jaguars (-3.5) over TEXANS  This may be another Fantasy Frenzy this week as the Jags head to Houston. They are one player away from being an elite defense, but they just aren’t there yet. David Garrard and MJD will keep this one close and the Texans will win by 3 once again in a shootout. Fantasy Pick: Maurice Jones-Drew, 160 total yards and 2TDs.

Panthers (+9) over COWBOYS  This is a ridiculous line and easy money for you. The Panthers are not that bad and like the Titans they are 0-2 and ready to fight someone. They may not come out on top, but +9, c ‘mon Vegas! Fantasy Pick: Felix Jones 15 carries 140 yards and a TD.

Last Week: 3-2, Season: 6-4

The Fantasy Guy’s Five: Week2

What’s up party people. Seems like Sunday is taking forever to get here, but I guess that’s just the beauty of Fantasy Football and the NFL in general. It’s comparable to a) waiting all week for 24 minutes of Entourage, b) a cornerback waiting to pick off one of Jay Cutler’s arid throws, c) standing in line at Wal-Mart and thinking to yourself, ‘I can’t wait to get the fuck out of here.’

Ha ha, yeah that’s right…I know you all know what I’m talking about. And if for some reason you don’t, check out www.peopleofwalmart.com. Whoever created this site is genius…in a comically intelligent kind of way. In fact, after browsing the site it gives you a whole new outlook on your next trip to Wal-Mart, almost to the point where it is something to look forward to……..almost! Anyway, I actually found myself at Wal-Mart (I don’t know what that means, “found myself at Wal-Mart,” but it feels right) yesterday picking up some detergent and of course I was curious as to what my eyes would see. Sure enough I wasn’t disappointed. The first thing I see when I walk in is a man standing in the middle of the main entrance with a bag of onions. He’s got a look about him that says, ‘My parents are different species and my sister is also my cousin,’ if you know what I mean. Simultaneously as I walked by him the bag of onions busted open like they were the ones about to cry. They hit the floor one after another and the guy ends up with only one onion left in the bag. He stops, looks at the ground watching his onions roll off in all different directions and then looks back at the last onion standing. Then, after a ten second pause (and yes I am still watching this guy, because I can’t bare to miss how the situation will conclude) he turns the bag over setting the last onion free, kicks one of them and walks off. Ahhh, the shit you see at Wal-Mart.

Now that I got that out, let’s talk some football. I ended up 3-2 last week, which in the betting world isn’t good, but it ain’t bad. We’re still on top. The Dolphins let me down and who would have thought the Buffalo Bills (greatest team name ever) would give the Pats a run for their money? On a more positive note I hit with my Fantasy Picks as they all had decents weeks and my predictions were nearly spot on outside of Run DMC not hitting paydirt. I’d say I am off to a solid start, definitely something to build on. So, without further adieu…here are my picks for Week 2.

You gotta love it!

Bengals over (+9) PACKERS   There’s too much parity in this league to have a crazy line like this and quite frankly the Packers didn’t look all that great even with Cutler’s gifts. Also, Chad Ochocinco has made a promise on Twitter to do something in regards to a Lambeau Leap so how can you root against that. The fact of the matter is, unless Brandon Stokley is traded to the Packers within the next 24 hours, the Bengals D should be able to hold and for you Greg Jennings fans, don’t expect the same as last week. Fantasy Pick: Chris Henry (WR) 5 catches 89 yards 1TD and we’ll let 85 leap as well.

Saints (PK) over EAGLES  Now listen, I’m almost positive by gametime this line will be swayed, but you don’t need to out think yourselves here. The Saints are ridiculous on offense, regardless of who they play, The Eagles are starting without McNabb and they are not going to have the same fire power to hold off Drew Brees in this one. Take the Saints. Fantasy Pick: Marques Colston (WR) 9 grabs for 119 and not one, but two TDs.

Ravens (+3.5) over CHARGERS  Too tough, too fast, too good for a soft Chargers squad. Plus, I am wacko for Flacco! Fantasy Pick: I’m rollin with Joe who will put up similiar numbers to last week. 301yds, 2TDs.

Seahawks (+1.5) over NINERS  Not sure the ‘FORTY FUCKIN NINERS’ should be favored in this one so I’ma put my money on ‘dem Seahawks. They are eager to take back what was theirs in the division, then again who cares about the NFC West. Fantasy Pick: T.J. Houshmandzadeh (WR) 8 grabs, 109 and a touch.

REDSKINS (+10) over Rams  Let’s see, the Rams can’t pass, the Ram’s can’t kick, the Ram’s can’t play defense and the only thing they got going for them is going to be clogged up by a human dump truck that is Albert Haynesworth. This could be the game that gives J-Campbell his swagger back, if he ever had any to begin with. Fantasy Pick: Clinton Portis (RB) 160 yards 2TDs.

You can pay for school, but you can't buy class

There ya go folks, lock ‘em in. Oh wait, let me get one final bet in before time is up. Money Mayweather is going to make it rain in Vegas tonight. It should be a good fight  and I can’t wait to pre-game for this one. I think HBO kills it with all the build-up. Get the full card out though because we are going 12 rounds before Marquez goes down. I also predict a win for boxing in the pay-per-view battle against UFC. It might not be back, but it ain’t dead. Be Easy.

Last Week’s Locks: 3-2

The Fantasy Guy’s Five: Week 1

Every year about this time I get all this cool junk mail from about seven different betting sites. How they all got my information to send me this stuff boggles my mind, but sure enough they’ve sniffed me out like a Michael Irvin crackpipe. BoDog and BETUS usually have the best stuff including a wonderful free swimsuit calender that competes up there with the best of them (See: Below).

Tell me you wouldn't?

However, I woke up this morning after having a few ‘Lendale Whites’ the night before with a pounding headache and the kind of sense of humor you get when you are a little hungover only to find a nice size package waiting on my front doorstep. I crack it open and inside is a red fold out chair with a nice little cup holder and a built-in cooler, which I thought was a nice little addition that I hadn’t ever seen before. The chair read VIP.com across the top making me blurt out a small ‘WOW’ to myself. I mean, I was fine with the little playbooks and calenders, but they really outdid themselves. They also probably got my business for the entire NFL season. That’s marketing at its finest right there.

Anyways, it got me to thinking about my next post. I have decided to reserve every Friday for my five locks of the week. You don’t have to listen to me on any of these, but you’ll see the stats won’t lie at the end of the year. Now I am no Greg Roberts, but I ain’t no chump either. So with that said, here is The Fantasy Guy’s Five for Week 1.

That's Gross-man!

PACKERS (-3.5) over Bears  Even though the Bears QB situation has upgraded a bit from their ass-grabbing antics over the past five years, the Pack at home is going to be tough to beat this year. I don’t see Cutler being at his best early on and with a banged up secondary look for Rodgers to have a field day. Fantasy Pick: Greg Jennings (WR) 7 grabs for 135 and a touch.

PATRIOTS (-10.5) over Bills  First off, Brady’s back. Second, nobody messes with the Pats on opening day at Gillette. I don’t care if they are playing the Bills of the 90s, they have no chance in this one. This should be the first one you put your money on. Fantasy Pick: Randy Moss (WR) 9 grabs for 156 hitting pay-dirt twice.

Redskins (+6.5) over GIANTS  I realize it’s the Giants at home, but this game is always a battle and the ‘Skins aren’t a bad squad. They also signed QB Andre Woodson last week to the practice squad who was cut by the Giants the week before. If this isn’t a Jim Zorn strategy to get inside of their opponents playbook, I don’t know what is, but I like it. Fantasy Pick: Chris Cooley (TE) 6 grabs, 100 yards and we’ll give him a TD as well.

Dolphins (+4) over FALCONS  Everybody wants to jump on that Atlanta Coal Train, but the Dolphins were just as good last year and they can D up against anybody. I don’t pick them to win, put they will cover, I promise. Fantasy Pick: Tony Gonzalez (TE) 5 catches 85 yards, 1TD.

RAIDERS (-9) over Chargers  Tom Cable punched his assistant. There’s gotta be some toughness in that locker room and playing at home on Monday Night against a Chargers team who has started slow the past three seasons, this one has all the makings of a bonafide upset. Fantasy Pick: Darren McFadden (RB) 115 total yards and a TD.

Get your bets in folks. And just so you know…I highly recommend checking out VIP.com for all of your sports betting needs.